next fall projections for H1N1 activity in Europe Sept. 17, 2009

Based on the estimation of the seasonal transmission potential described in this paper, GLEaM provides an early assessment of the future unfolding of the epidemic in the different hemispheres. Assuming that no effective containment measures are introduced, we find the potential of an autumn/winter wave in the Northern hemisphere striking earlier than expected for seasonal influenza, with peak times starting in the second half of October.

The activity peak is predicted to occur in Western Europe in the time interval [Oct 14 - Nov 21], that represents the confidence interval extracted from 2,000 stochastic realizations of GLEaM based on the estimated parameters.

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