publications, research

new paper in BMC Medicine on H1N1 spread Sept. 11, 2009

The results of our study on the estimation of the seasonal transmission potential of the H1N1 flu appear in the manuscript

Seasonal transmission potential and activity peaks of the new influenza A(H1N1): a Monte Carlo likelihood analysis based on human mobility
D Balcan, H Hu, B Goncalves, P Bajardi, C Poletto, JJ Ramasco, D Paolotti, N Perra, M Tizzoni, W Van den Broeck, V Colizza, A Vespignani
BMC Medicine 2009, 7:45.

For a description of the Monte Carlo procedure used in the work to estimate the seasonal transmission potential and the results obtained for the projections of the winter activity peaks in the Northern hemisphere, have a look at this post.

The map below shows the 12 countries infected by travelers from Mexico used in the Monte Carlo likelihood analysis to estimate the H1N1 transmission potential. The color code of the arrows from red to yellow indicates the time ordering of the epidemic invasion.