publications, research

new knol on modeling the critical care demand during the Fall 2009 wave of A(H1N1) pandemic Dec. 10, 2009

We recently published a knol in PLoS Currents Influenza about modeling the critical care demand during the A(H1N1) pandemic:



Modeling the critical care demand and antibiotics resources needed during the Fall 2009 wave of influenza A(H1N1) pandemic.
D. Balcan; V. Colizza; A.C. Singer; C. Chouaid; H. Hu; B. Gonçalves; P. Bajardi; C. Poletto; J.J. Ramasco; N. Perra; M. Tizzoni; D. Paolotti; W. Van den Broeck; A. J. Valleron; A. Vespignani.
PLoS Currents: Influenza. 2009 Dic 4:RRN1133

We develop a disease model that considers the development of influenza-associated complications and incorporate it into a global epidemic model to assess the expected surge in critical care demands due to viral and bacterial pneumonia.

Based on the most recent estimates of complication rates, we predict the expected peak number of intensive care unit beds and the stockpile of antibiotic courses needed for the current pandemic wave. The effects of dynamic vaccination campaigns, and of variations of the relative proportion of bacterial co-infection in complications and different length of staying in the intensive care unit are explored.

More details on the model used and the results can be found in this post.