new paper in EHT Journal on H1N1 and vaccines Nov. 9, 2009
The results of our analysis on the impact of the vaccination campaign on the H1N1 influenza appear in the manuscript
Modeling vaccination campaigns and the Fall/Winter 2009 activity of the new A(H1N1) influenza in the Northern Hemisphere
P Bajardi, C Poletto, D Balcan, H Hu, B Goncalves, JJ Ramasco, D Paolotti, N Perra, M Tizzoni, W Van den Broeck, V Colizza, A Vespignani
Emerging Health Threats Journal 2009, 2:e11.
The paper discusses the effectiveness of the vaccination campaign in mitigating the epidemic in the Northern Hemisphere, according to the predicted epidemic unfolding. For a description of the model have a look at this post.
The incidence curves, reported on the right, show the impact of an incremental vaccination with 1% daily distribution starting on October 15 for a late peak scenario. Germany and UK are considered as examples.
Results show that mass vaccination may have little effect on controlling the pandemic, unless additional mitigation strategies are considered to delay the activity peak.